Germany's Revival Faces Spanish Test
Germany, under Julian Nagelsmann, has found a rhythm in recent months. They've strung together five consecutive wins since their surprising group stage exit in the 2025 Nations League, including a dominant 3-0 victory over France last November where Jamal Musiala scored a brace. That form suggests a team finally gelling, leaning heavily on a dynamic midfield and an aggressive high press. They've scored 14 goals in those five games, conceding just three, showing a much-improved defensive shape that was sorely missing a year ago.
Spain, meanwhile, arrives in Germany looking to solidify their own standing. Luis de la Fuente’s side topped their Nations League group, beating Portugal 2-1 in the final match of that campaign. Their last competitive outing saw them dispatch Scotland 4-0, with Gavi pulling the strings in midfield and Alvaro Morata bagging two goals. Spain's identity remains rooted in possession, but they've added a directness that makes them far less predictable than in previous eras. They're still built around young talent, but there's a steeliness there now.
Historically, matches between these two giants are tight affairs. The last time they met was in the 2022 World Cup group stage, a 1-1 draw where Niclas Füllkrug equalized late for Germany. Before that, Spain hammered Germany 6-0 in a 2020 Nations League fixture, a result that still stings in Berlin. Over their last 10 encounters across all competitions, Spain holds a slight edge with four wins to Germany's three, with three draws. Expect another cagey contest, decided by fine margins.
Midfield Maestros and Defensive Vulnerabilities
The key battleground here is undoubtedly the midfield. For Germany, the partnership of Joshua Kimmich and Ilkay Gündoğan provides both control and creativity, but it's the freedom given to Musiala and Florian Wirtz that truly unlocks their attack. Musiala, with six goals in his last eight international appearances, is playing with supreme confidence, drifting between the lines and linking up with Kai Havertz. Wirtz, too, has been electric, registering four assists in the qualifying campaign. Their ability to evade Spanish pressure will be crucial.
Spain counters with a formidable trio of their own. Rodri anchors the midfield, providing an almost impenetrable shield in front of the defense. Gavi and Pedri, assuming full fitness, offer relentless pressing and exquisite passing. Gavi's energy and knack for winning second balls are vital, while Pedri's vision can unlock any defense. This Spanish midfield completed over 90% of their passes against Scotland, controlling the tempo from start to finish. Real talk: whoever wins this midfield battle likely wins the match.
Thing is, both teams have slight defensive question marks. Germany's backline, while improved, can still be exposed by pace. Antonio Rüdiger and Jonathan Tah are strong, but full-backs like David Raum can be caught high up the pitch. Spain, on the other hand, relies heavily on Aymeric Laporte's experience, but their younger full-backs, like Alejandro Balde, are sometimes prone to positional errors when facing quick wingers. Germany's wide players could exploit those channels, especially if Spain commits too many bodies forward.
Look, the individual brilliance of players like Musiala and Gavi could easily decide this. Musiala's dribbling and finishing inside the box are elite. Gavi's pressing and ability to break up play are unmatched. And don't forget Morata for Spain; he's quietly racked up 36 international goals, making him a consistent threat in the box. Germany will need to be wary of his movement, particularly on crosses from Dani Olmo.
Tactical Showdown: Press vs. Possession
Nagelsmann's Germany will likely employ a high-intensity pressing game, aiming to disrupt Spain's rhythm early and force turnovers in dangerous areas. They've found success by suffocating opponents, particularly with their attacking midfielders closing down central defenders. This aggressive approach worked wonders against France, who struggled to build from the back under constant pressure. Germany's average possession in their last three wins was around 55%, indicating they're comfortable controlling the ball but aren't afraid to let opponents have it if it means creating counter-attacking opportunities.
Spain, in contrast, will stick to their possession-based philosophy, but with a renewed emphasis on verticality. They won't just pass for the sake of it. De la Fuente has encouraged more direct passes into the final third, utilizing the pace of Nico Williams and the clever runs of Olmo. They'll try to draw Germany out and then exploit the spaces left behind. Spain averaged 68% possession in their last five matches, a clear indicator of their preferred style. The question is whether they can play through Germany's press without making critical errors.
My hot take? Germany's aggressive press, combined with the home crowd, will rattle Spain early. While Spain will eventually settle, Germany's midfield dynamo of Musiala and Wirtz will prove too much to handle over 90 minutes. I'm predicting Germany to win this one 2-1.