France's Unshakeable Grip at the Top
Look, we all expected France to be good. But sitting here at Week 17, their lead at the top of the qualifying group is just absurd. They've racked up 45 points from a possible 51, scoring 38 goals while conceding only 7. That's a +31 goal difference, far and away the best in the competition. Kylian Mbappé has been an absolute terror, already bagging 12 goals himself, and he's not even hitting his peak form every single match. The scary part? They haven't really been tested yet. Their toughest fixture, a 2-1 win over Spain back in Week 10, felt like they were just coasting.
Thing is, nobody else in their group has even come close to challenging them. Belgium, who everyone pegged as their main rival, are a distant second with 32 points. They've dropped points against lesser teams like Ukraine (a 1-1 draw in Week 14) and even needed a late Romelu Lukaku winner to beat Georgia 1-0 in Week 8. That kind of inconsistency just won't cut it when you're chasing a juggernaut like France.
This isn't just a good season for France; it feels like a statement. Their defensive solidity, anchored by William Saliba and Ibrahima Konaté, has been immense. They’re allowing opponents fewer than 8 shots per game, which is a significant drop from their average of 11.5 shots conceded per game in the last qualifying cycle. That kind of control wins tournaments.
Germany's Mid-Table Malaise and Italy's Grit
Here's the real head-scratcher: Germany. They're languishing in third place in their group with 28 points, behind both England (39 points) and Denmark (34 points). This is a team that, on paper, should be challenging for the top spot, not fighting to avoid the playoffs. Their 3-0 home loss to England in Week 12 was particularly damning, exposing a real lack of cohesion in the midfield. Jamal Musiala has flashes of brilliance, sure, but he can't do it all himself.
Germany’s problem isn't just one area; it's systemic. They've conceded 15 goals, which is more than every team in the top half of the table except for Portugal (16 goals conceded). That's not the Germany we've known for decades. The expected goals against (xGA) for Germany sits at 13.2, suggesting their defense is actually performing slightly worse than the numbers show. That's a red flag for any serious contender.
On the flip side, Italy continues to grind out results. They're second in their group, just two points behind Spain, with 36 points. Their 1-0 win over Portugal in Week 16, a late Ciro Immobile penalty, perfectly encapsulates their season: not always pretty, but effective. They've only scored 25 goals, which is pretty low for a team near the top, but they've only conceded 9. Roberto Mancini has them organized, as usual, and they just find ways to win tight games. That kind of defensive discipline and ability to snatch points is often what separates the good teams from the great ones in a long qualifying campaign.
The Relegation Scramble: Who's Going Down?
Down at the bottom, the relegation battle is getting spicy. San Marino, as expected, are rooted to the bottom of their group with zero points and a goal difference of -45. They've scored just one goal all season, a historical moment against Liechtenstein in Week 5 that still ended in a 3-1 loss. That's just their reality.
But above them, things are tight. Moldova, with 7 points, and Malta, with 9 points, are locked in a desperate struggle to avoid the automatic drop in their respective groups. Moldova's recent form is worrying; they've lost their last five matches, including a 4-0 thrashing by Norway in Week 15. Malta, on the other hand, managed a surprising 0-0 draw against Azerbaijan in Week 13, showing they can still pinch a point. It's those unexpected results that keep a team alive.
Andorra, sitting on 11 points, seemed safe a few weeks ago, but a string of three consecutive losses, including a 2-0 defeat to Latvia in Week 17, has pulled them back into the mire. Their xG for the season is a meager 8.7, indicating they're struggling to create meaningful chances. Real talk: I think Moldova are done for. Their lack of attacking threat and porous defense (31 goals conceded) means they just can't compete. Malta and Andorra will fight it out, but I lean towards Malta having just enough grit to stay up, perhaps by a single point.
Overperformers and Underperformers: Beyond the Obvious
Beyond France's predictable dominance, one major overperformer has to be Scotland. They sit second in their group with 30 points, ahead of a much-fancied Poland team (27 points) and Austria (25 points). Steve Clarke has them playing above their individual talent level. Scott McTominay has been a revelation, scoring 7 goals from midfield, which is far more than anyone expected. Their xG difference of +9.5 is solid, but their actual goal difference is +12, suggesting they're converting chances efficiently and getting some good fortune.
On the flip side, I've got to call out Portugal as an underperformer, even though they're second in their group with 34 points. For a squad with Cristiano Ronaldo, Bruno Fernandes, and Bernardo Silva, they should be top. Losing to Italy 1-0 and drawing 2-2 with Switzerland in Week 9 felt like missed opportunities. They've scored 29 goals, which is good, but they've conceded 16, which is too high for a team with their defensive talent. They're relying too much on individual brilliance and not enough on cohesive team play. Roberto Martinez needs to sort out that defense, or they'll get caught out in the knockout stages.
Bold Prediction: France will go the entire qualifying campaign undefeated, and Germany will ultimately miss out on automatic qualification, forced into a nail-biting playoff scenario where they'll barely scrape through.