The Low Countries derby, Netherlands against Belgium, always delivers. March 2026 brings another chapter, Matchday 22, and the stakes are quietly high for both sides. The Dutch, under manager Ronald Koeman, have been a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde outfit recently, while Domenico Tedesco’s Belgium looks to finally shed the ‘golden generation’ tag and forge a new identity. This isn’t just a friendly; pride is on the line, and frankly, both managers need a statement win.
The Netherlands come into this on the back of a somewhat unconvincing 1-0 victory over Scotland, where Cody Gakpo’s late strike saved them. Before that, they drew 2-2 with Germany, a game they really should have won after going up 2-0 inside 30 minutes. That fragility, particularly in the second half, has been a recurring theme. Koeman’s preferred 4-3-3 system relies heavily on his wingers and Frenkie de Jong’s ability to dictate tempo from deep. But if De Jong gets isolated, the whole structure can wobble.
Belgium, on the other hand, just thumped a decent Austria side 3-0, with Romelu Lukaku bagging a brace. That’s a stark contrast to their 1-1 draw against Sweden a month prior, where they looked a little flat. Tedesco has been trying to transition away from the old guard, bringing in younger talent like Jérémy Doku and Amadou Onana. They’re still finding their feet as a unit, but the raw talent is undeniable. Lukaku, even at 32, remains their most potent attacking threat, having scored 14 goals in his last 10 international appearances.
Midfield Dominance Will Be Key
This match will be won or lost in the engine room. For the Netherlands, the partnership of Frenkie de Jong and Teun Koopmeiners is vital. De Jong’s ability to break lines with his passing and dribbling is world-class, but Koopmeiners needs to provide more defensive steel and cover the ground. Against Germany, they were overrun in the second half when the intensity dropped. They can’t afford that against a Belgian side that loves to hit on the counter.
Thing is, Belgium’s midfield isn’t just about raw power anymore. Onana, at 24, has developed into a commanding presence, breaking up play and driving forward. He’s complemented by Youri Tielemans, who offers a more creative, box-to-box presence. The battle between De Jong and Onana will be absolutely fascinating. Whoever gains control of that central area will dictate the flow of the game. If Onana can consistently disrupt De Jong’s rhythm, the Dutch attack will struggle to build anything meaningful.
The head-to-head record between these two is surprisingly even over the last decade. They’ve met five times since 2016, with two wins for the Netherlands, one for Belgium, and two draws. The most recent clash, in June 2024, ended in a thrilling 2-2 draw, where Memphis Depay and Lois Openda both scored. That game was a chaotic affair, with neither side really dominating for long stretches. This time, I expect a slightly more cagey start, given the importance of a good performance for both managers.
Attacking Threats and Defensive Worries
Upfront for the Netherlands, the pace of Gakpo and Xavi Simons on the wings, flanking Memphis Depay, is their main weapon. Simons, in particular, has been in scintillating form for his club, registering 8 assists in his last 12 appearances. His ability to cut inside and create chances is a nightmare for fullbacks. But Depay, while still dangerous, sometimes struggles with consistency. The Dutch defense, marshaled by Virgil van Dijk, has looked solid at times, but can be exposed by quick transitions. Denzel Dumfries at right-back is excellent going forward, but can leave space in behind.
Belgium’s attack, beyond Lukaku, features the electrifying Doku. His dribbling ability is almost unmatched, and he’s matured significantly, adding more end product to his game. Leandro Trossard provides another option, capable of playing anywhere across the front three. The main concern for Tedesco will be his defense. Jan Vertonghen, at 36, is still playing, but his pace is not what it once was. Wout Faes has been solid but can be prone to lapses in concentration. This is where the Dutch wingers could really exploit them.
My slightly controversial take? Koeman should consider starting Donyell Malen over Depay. Malen’s relentless pressing and direct running might disrupt Belgium’s backline more effectively than Depay’s hold-up play. It’s a risk, but one that could pay off by injecting more energy from the first whistle.
Tactical Prediction
I anticipate Tedesco will set up Belgium in a 4-2-3-1, looking to use Onana and Tielemans to win the midfield battle, then unleash Doku and Lukaku on the counter. The Netherlands will stick to their 4-3-3, aiming to dominate possession and stretch Belgium wide through Gakpo and Simons. The key for the Dutch will be how quickly they can transition from attack to defense, especially if their fullbacks push high. If they lose the ball in dangerous areas, Doku will punish them.
This match won't be a blowout. It'll be tight, tactical, and decided by fine margins. I see a moment of individual brilliance, probably from one of the wingers, breaking the deadlock. My bold prediction: The Netherlands wins 2-1, with Xavi Simons scoring the winner in the second half.